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Reading results: Bayesian analysis and winners

< 1 min read

Opti-Behavior evaluates experiments using Bayesian analysis and marks a winner when the evidence is strong enough. This article explains how to read results.

Understanding the results #

  • Probability to be best – the Bayesian likelihood each variant is the winner.
  • Winner indicator – appears once a variant meets your confidence, sample, and duration thresholds.
  • Safe winner application – apply the winner only when the test has enough evidence.

Steps #

  1. Open the test in WP Admin ? Opti-Behavior ? A/B Testing.
  2. Review each variant’s conversion rate and probability to be best.
  3. When a winner is indicated, apply it.
Bayesian analysis comparing Control and Variant A showing a 100 percent probability to beat control with posterior means and credible intervals

Expected result #

You confidently identify the better variant and apply it without guesswork.

FAQ #

Why no winner yet? #

The test has not reached your confidence, sample-size, or duration thresholds.

Related articles #

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